Coronavirus trend of Bangladesh will follow India

Update 7/1/20

Bangladesh’s new case is plateaued on 7/1/20 after rising for almost three months. The case is still growing on a very small scale, but it might keep in the flatten state for the next month. A possibility is that the curve might start moving downward in July very slowly. The downward movement of the curve will accelerate in August and by September, the number of new cases will be subsided significantly.

The reason for possible exhaustion of the daily new case count could be multiples-

a) Maybe 25% of Dhaka residents (5–6 M) are already carrying the virus. Maybe we can only see 10% of it (symptomatic). Among these 500–600k symptomatic patients, we might have just detected 100k cases in Dhaka (20% of symptomatic). I personally think that after these first 5–6 M cases, we might have another 5 M cases in July. Eventually

b) The cases in other places than Dhaka might be less severe than Dhaka. I assume we detected 50k symptomatic cases in the rest of the country, where real case count could be 200–250k. The asymptotic cases might be 500–600k in the rest of the country.

Update on 6/15

The trend of Bangladesh is following the trend of India. India reached its peak in the first week of June and now staying more or less flat; approx ~10k case/day. Bangladesh is projected to peak at ~4k/case in the last week of June. However, we would need to have a lookout until the end of June, since Bangladesh started easing businesses and public transportation on June 1.

Following is the 14-day trend of the new case reported in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan:

Source: NYTimes

Based on the slope of Bangladesh’s new cases, It might start to drop after it reaches 7 degrees. My assumption is that the case will reach a 7-degree slope in the next week or so. Later it will be a plateaued graph for 30–35 days before it starts to descend in early August.

Why Bangladesh’s case pattern will follow India’s

2. Both countries have a high population density and extreme density in urban areas.

3. Both India and Bangladesh thrive in SMEs, which pushed both govt. to open the businesses in the time of the uprising of the cases.

4. Both countries depend heavily on public transportation. Hard for Bangladesh and India to manage a “real” social distancing in public transit.

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